As the Midwest prepares for a strong storm system caused by a polar vortex, some are wondering how there can still be talk of global warming when temperatures in the northern United States are due to reach lows not seen in decades, or even centuries.
The science behind these weather patterns and their connections can seem complicated. And though some still deny the human contribution to climate change, the overall scientific evidence of global warming is irrefutable.
As temperatures around the globe increase, polar ice melts, causing ocean and sea levels to rise. This allows for more evaporation to occur while simultaneously shifting the jet stream further south.
When this happens, colder arctic air pushes southward during the winter months. This, coupled with the excess evaporation of water, increases the chances for harsher winters with heavier snow storms and more freezing snaps.
This happens due to a rise in overall greenhouse gas levels. As the levels rise, many plants are unable to absorb as large a percentage of those gases as they could in the past due to the overabundance.
This increases the amount of greenhouse gas that remains in the atmosphere.
When this happens, the remaining carbon gasses then cause a rise in temperatures during spring and summer months. Hotter temperatures mean shorter growing seasons for various crops and other types of plants.
And the cycle continues.
In fact, a new study by NASA is showing a correlation between warming of tropical oceans and the potential affects it could have on increasing the frequency of extreme rain storms during summer months in the coming century.
NASA’s JPL study team recently combed through 15 years of data that was gathered by their Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument above the tropical oceans in order to determine if there is a correlation between the average sea surface temperature and the onset of severe storms.
What they discovered was that these extreme storms formed when the water’s surface temperature was higher than about 82°F (28°C).
“It is somewhat common sense that severe storms will increase in a warmer environment. Thunderstorms typically occur in the warmest season of the year,” says Hartmut Aumann, leader of the NASA/JPL team that did the study. “But our data provide the first quantitative estimate of how much they are likely to increase, at least for the tropical oceans.”
The currently accepted climate models have projected that the steady increase of carbon gases in the atmosphere will cause tropical ocean surface temperatures to rise by as much as 4.8°F (2.7°C) by the end of this century.
If this were to happen, the study team concludes that the frequency of extreme storms is likely to increase by as much as 60% by that time.
Admittedly, climate models are not perfect. But their results can be used as guidelines for those that are looking to prepare for the potential effects of a changing climate. These studies can also be used to help us determine how we can all work together to change the outcome by changing the way we affect the environment.
“Our results quantify and give a more visual meaning to the consequences of the predicted warming of the oceans,” Aumann said. “More storms mean more flooding, more structure damage, more crop damage, and so on, unless mitigating measures are implemented.”