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Home | Tag Archives: mexican presidential race

Tag Archives: mexican presidential race

Andrés Manuel López Obrador Wins Mexican Presidential Race

MEXICO CITY — Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who rallied voters with his battle cry against corruption and promises to the poor, won a resounding victory on Sunday night in Mexico’s presidential election, after the concession of his two top rivals. The victory makes him the first leftist president since Mexico began its transition to democracy more than 30 years ago.

López Obrador triumphed with his ‘Morena Party– one that didn’t exist at the time of the last election, against opponents from two parties that have ruled Mexico for nearly a century. The 64-year-old former Mexico City mayor promises to bring his humble lifestyle and distaste for luxury to the top of a political establishment famous for self-enrichment.

Both of his main opponents, Ricardo Anaya and Jose Antonio Meade, conceded to López Obrador and offered their congratulations.

His supporters streamed toward the Zocalo, the main plaza in Mexico City, for a celebration. But many Mexicans were reserved after the concession speeches.

“There is so much wrong. I think some people voted for López Obrador, but the majority voted for a change that we need,” said Fernando Torres, a 23-year-old publicity agent who was walking on Paseo de la Reforma, a major downtown boulevard.

López Obrador’s victory represents an emphatic rejection of the traditional politicians whom he regularly calls the “mafia of power.” In recent decades, Mexico has been led by technocrats and pro-American politicians, while López Obrador’s role models are Mexican independence and revolutionary leaders who stood up to more powerful foreign countries.

President Trump looms in the background of this vote. He has not been a wedge issue in the election — as all candidates have opposed his policies and anti-Mexican rhetoric — but the new Mexican president will have to manage cross-border relations that are unusually fraught.

“We are very conscious of the enormity of the challenge,” said Hector Vasconcelos, the expected foreign minister in López Obrador’s government, said in an interview. “But someone has to try to turn this country toward profound change.”

López Obrador’s opponents have sought to portray him as a dangerous populist who will lead Mexico back to failed economic models of subsidies and state intervention, while provoking more tension with Trump’s administration.

But the unpopularity of President Enrique Pena Nieto and the PRI — which ruled Mexico for most of the past century — hobbled the candidate from the long-dominant party and prompted voters to search for an alternative to traditional political candidates. (Peña Nieto is not running; Mexican presidents are limited to one term.)

López Obrador’s supporters attributed his win to the longevity and personal charisma of a candidate who is running in his third consecutive election and has campaigned in every municipality in the country. His message has remained largely consistent — eradicate corruption, invest in the poor, fight inequality — but got a warmer reception this year due to mounting frustration after a series of scandals in Peña Nieto’s administration and ever-growing drug war violence.

“Voting is the only tool we have to ensure that this corrupt system changes,” said Luis Valdepeña Bastida, 51, who voted for López Obrador in Ecatepec, a densely-populated city north of the capital that has high-levels of crime. “The people are fed up.”

López Obrador grew up in a middle-class family in the Gulf Coast state of Tabasco and began his political career helping indigenous villagers with public works projects, which exposed him to Mexico’s glaring inequality. He broke away from the PRI in the late 1980s and joined a leftist opposition party. López Obrador grew famous as a leader of protests against voter fraud and the abuses of the state-owned oil industry.

López Obrador only has one prior electoral victory. In 2000, he became mayor of Mexico City, where he boosted social spending for single mothers, the handicapped and the elderly. Major projects, such as an elevated highway through the city, and the revitalization of downtown neighborhoods, also boosted his popularity.

After two failed presidential bids, López Obrador, whose nickname is AMLO, has tempered his message this year. While he still emphasizes the fight against extreme poverty, saying it will lead to less violence and a stronger economy, he has portrayed himself as more pro-business and pro-American than in the past. His critics worry he would roll back a recent reform to allow private investment in the oil industry and cancel a multibillion-dollar airport project in Mexico City.

“It’s difficult to know if he’s changed, if he’s now less radical, or if it’s just a political decision to become elected,” said Andres Rozental, a retired Mexican diplomat. “AMLO, at least in his rhetoric, represents a shift much to the left of what we’ve ever seen nationally.”

López Obrador’s critics warn that he will be more combative toward the United States than the current president, Peña Nieto, and that U.S.-Mexico conflict could drastically escalate if he chooses to fight with Trump. In prior years, López Obrador was a critic of the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, but he and his team have insisted they want to preserve it and maintain good relations with the Trump administration.

Trump has regularly attacked Mexico for not doing enough to stop drugs, crime and illegal immigrants from entering the United States. He has also initiated a renegotiation of NAFTA, saying Mexico has stolen American jobs, and intends to build a border wall.

López Obrador, who heads the National Regeneration Movement, or Morena, says he plans to cut government personnel and salaries, and prevent funds from squandered through corruption. He intends to use those resources to boost social programs for the poor. Corruption experts express skepticism about this plan.

Alfonso Romo, a wealthy businessman who has been chosen as López Obrador’s chief of staff, told reporters last week that the economic team has met with hundreds of hedge funds and institutional investors as it became increasingly clear the candidate would win.

“Up to now the markets are tranquil,” Romo said, referring to the currency, bond and stock prices. “What does that say? They have believed our plan.”

Sunday’s elections are the largest in Mexico’s history, with voters choosing more than 3,200 positions at all levels of government. Among these are 628 members of the national congress, who will be able to be reelected for the first time in nearly a century; eight state governors; and mayors of more than 1,500 cities, including Mexico City.

The campaign season has been marked by brutal violence, with some 130 candidates and campaign staff assassinated across the country.

López Obrador’s leftist party, the National Regeneration Movement, or Morena, is hoping to capture a majority in congress, which would be a remarkable rise for a party he founded four years ago.

“This is a historic day,” López Obrador said as he voted Sunday. “We represent the possibility of a real change, of a transformation.”

Election day began with seemingly high turnout and long-lines at voting stations. There were reports that sites ran out of ballots before all those who were gathered outside could vote.

In Atizapan de Zaragoza, in Mexico state, more than 100 voters started to protest at the door of a polling station that had closed at 5 p.m., an hour before the official end of voting, because the last of the presidential ballots had already been used. Election officials said they were not responsible for running out of ballots and that people needed to vote where they were registered.

“They said it’s the biggest election ever, and they did not get enough ballots for everyone,” said Oscar Miguel Reyes Isidoro, 51, who was unable to cast a vote.

Mexico has a long history of voter fraud, although elections have dramatically improved in recent years. In the past two elections López Obrador has alleged fraud as a reason for his losses. Election officials insist the voting system is safe and secure.

López Obrador was competing against Ricardo Anaya, an ambitious 39-year-old former president of the right-leaning National Action Party (PAN); and a 49-year-old Yale-trained economist, Jose Antonio Meade, representing the governing Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). Both had lagged in the polls.

Maya Averbuch in Ecatepec, Mexico and Dudley Althaus, Kevin Sieff and Gabriela Martinez in Mexico City contributed to this report.


In Texas and Beyond, Some Watch Mexican Presidential Campaign with Free Trade Concerns

CIUDAD JUAREZ, Mexico — On a recent evening in this sprawling border city’s downtown, Alfredo Santiago treated passers-by to an electric, instrumental version of Santana’s cover of “Oye Como Va,” the famous Tito Puente standard. That was before he launched into the unmistakable riffs of ZZ Top’s “La Grange.”

It was just another day’s work for Santiago, 65, who started playing guitar for money when he was no longer able to work in the construction industry, where he toiled for decades. He likes his current gig, he said, but it’s also the only way he can make a living these days. On a good day, he said, he’ll collect about 100 pesos.

That’s one reason why, like the rest of his fellow Mexicans, Santiago is now paying closer attention to the field of candidates vying to become Mexico’s next president, who will be chosen July 1. Santiago said he’s more concerned about the country’s economy than security, although the latter is a close second.

He’s pulling for former Mexico City Mayor Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or AMLO, as he’s known in this country. A poll conducted last month showed the outspoken populist and candidate for the National Regeneration Movement, or MORENA, with an 11-point lead over the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI’s, Jose Antonio Meade. President Enrique Peña Nieto, also a PRI member, cannot run again because of term limits.

Some business leaders in Mexico, Texas and elsewhere in the United States are nervous about what a potential victory by López Obrador could mean for international trade, the bread and butter for several border economies. Texas is Mexico’s No. 1 trade partner. From January to November of 2017, the Laredo and El Paso customs districts saw $270.2 billion and $85.5 billion in two-way trade with Mexico, respectively, according to WorldCity, a Florida-based economics think tank that uses U.S. Census data to track trade patterns.

“He has tapped into a growing nationalist sentiment in Mexico, perhaps due to President [Donald] Trump’s rhetoric [about Mexico],” said Jon Barela, the CEO of the Borderplex Alliance, a nonprofit focused on promoting business and economic development in Ciudad Juárez, El Paso and New Mexico. In September, Barela compared López Obrador to former Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chávez, a socialist and American adversary who was highly critical of U.S. economic and foreign policies.

Obrador has initially said the North American Free Trade Agreement is a bad deal for Mexico and called for the delay of talks to rework the trade pact until after the Mexican elections. When coupled with the anxiety that Trump’s view of NAFTA has caused some Texans, the Mexican elections have sounded alarm bells for border industries who have thrived since the pact’s inception in the early 1990s.

“I do think if he wins, it will be a very different presidency and administration, and it will be one that fundamentally questions Mexico’s model of the last three decades,” said Shannon O’Neil, the vice president, deputy director of studies, and Nelson and David Rockefeller senior fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank. “And that’s a model that’s very closely tied to Texas and to trade back and forth with Texas, to companies that exist on both sides of the border — that is a model that he will question.”

Barela said he was encouraged by recent statements the front-runner has made on NAFTA, indicating he’s softening his stance and open to a dialogue on the trade pact.

According to his campaign platform, López Obrador acknowledged that NAFTA was important to the Mexican economy and “a demonstrated useful instrument” Politico reported.

“There’s a long time between now and the Mexican election, but I am hopeful that should he be elected that a level of pragmatism certainly would be in order,” Barela said. “He seems to have tempered some of this remarks on free trade.”

But O’Neil said that might have more to do with messaging and a more sophisticated campaign style than when López Obrador ran for the presidency in 2006 and 2012.

“He has some people around him who have a different communication style, and he’s set out a proposal that’s more broad,” she said. “But when you see him out on the stump, he really hasn’t changed.”

Meanwhile, Meade, who was polling at about 20 percent, is considered the candidate that would keep Mexico’s current economic policies largely unchanged. That’s why O’Neil thinks Texas business and political leaders might pull for him or Ricardo Anaya, a former National Action Party, or PAN, leader who has aligned with the center-left Party of the Democratic Revolution, or PRD. Anaya is also supportive of Mexico’s current institutions and was polling at 19 percent. Two other major candidates — Margarita Zavala, the wife of former President Felipe Calderón, and Nuevo Leon Governor Jaime “El Bronco” Rodríguez — polled at 10 and 2 percent, respectively.

“I think the challenge Meade has is that PRI legacy, and it’s a legacy of increasing violence, it’s a legacy of high-profile corruption,” O’Neil said.

Meade, a former economic and foreign affairs minister, is a familiar name in Texas political circles. In 2015, he visited Austin and met with Gov. Greg Abbott, where the two talked about several issues, including security, trade and infrastructure.

O’Neil said Meade could have momentum because he isn’t an elected official. But as the PRI’s current choice, he must also push back against that party’s legacy of corruption and ineffectiveness in combating violence, she added.

For Santiago, the street musician, the violence and the PRI’s inability to effect change on that issue is a reason he’s aligning himself with the populist candidate.

“It’s gotten better, but not by a lot,” he said. “It’s been a disaster” overall.

Once known as the deadliest city in the world, Ciudad Juárez has enjoyed some relative calm since a cartel war was responsible for the deaths of more than 10,000 people from 2008 to 2011. But 2017 was the deadliest year since 2012, with more than 770 homicides, and 25 people were murdered in just two days there last week.

That failure to sustain peace in the country will ultimately be part of current President Enrique Peña Nieto’s legacy, said Vanda Felbab-Brown, a a senior fellow in the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence in the Foreign Policy program at Brookings Institute. And that could sink that party’s chance at re-election.

“The Peña administration failed fully in its key security promises,” she said. “One must say [it failed] in all of its promises regarding security.”

Though El Paso remained one of the safest cities in the country during the mayhem across the Rio Grande, it didn’t stop people who didn’t know any better from assuming the violence was spilling over into Texas, Barela said. He’s always worried about what a repeat scenario could mean for investment in Texas.

“I think people are frankly fed up with a lot of talk and no action when it comes to the violence and the threats of violence [in Mexico],” he said. “And because of violence, businesses people are sometimes skeptical to invest in our region.”

O’Neil said that with so many candidates, the eventual winner could only need to secure about 30 percent of the vote, as only a plurality is needed to win the office.

“That isn’t much of a mandate,” she said.

Read related Tribune coverage:

  • A number of Texas-based business groups have teamed up to prevent a reversal of the good trade relations with Mexico that Texas has enjoyed since the North American Free Trade Agreement went into effect 23 years ago. [Full story]
  • Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller on Thursday left the tough talk on immigration in Austin while he held a historic press conference on one of the country’s busiest international bridges to Mexico. [Full story]

Author –  JULIÁN AGUILAR – The Texas Tribune

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