Photo courtesy UTEP
Tuesday afternoon, the University of Texas at El Paso’s Border Region Modeling Project (BRMP) released long-range projections for the region’s demographics, labor markets, commercial activity, economic performance and more in “Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2049.”
The new report is the first long-run economic forecast published by UTEP since 2010. It is co-authored by Tom Fullerton, Ph.D., UTEP economics professor, and Steven Fullerton, BRMP associate director and staff economist.
Despite the challenges the Borderplex regional economy is currently experiencing due to the unexpected global COVID-19 recession, the latest issue of the forecast indicates that long-run prospects for the region remain favorable.
The report indicates that the population of El Paso will surpass the 1 million mark in 2041 and approach 1.1 million by 2049. Demographic expansion coupled with higher incomes cause the number of households in the Sun City to reach 348,600 by the end of the forecast period. Ballooning demand for information services will also cause El Paso County college enrollments to grow steadily.
Total employment is expected to exceed 591,000 jobs by 2049, but aggregate payrolls are projected to fall in three sectors – manufacturing, retail and federal military employment.
Sectors in which payrolls are expected to swell include health care and social services, hotel and food services, finance, insurance, and real estate, as well as transportation and warehousing.
Tom Fullerton indicated that the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will lead more companies such as Amazon to invest in El Paso.
El Paso personal income will exceed $136 billion while gross commercial activity is projected to exceed $43.3 billion by 2049. Wage and salary disbursements are forecast to reach $66 billion during this period.
The BRMP report also highlights long-run trends for El Paso housing prices, non-residential construction, commerce, water consumption, transportation and international border crossings.
Tom Fullerton stated that the new long-run forecast provides useful information for all companies and government agencies who face long-term lending, borrowing and planning decisions.